The U.S.-backed Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took control last week of several important towns in Deir al-Zor Governorate after the withdrawal of Syrian regime forces and Iran-backed militias. Now that Bashar al-Assad has been ousted, this could give the SDF leverage in discussions over the future of Syria. However, the situation also potentially exposes the SDF to fighting with rival armed groups for control and may overstretch its forces amid continued attacks by Turkish-backed groups.
Until recently, Deir al-Zor governorate was split between the SDF to the east of the Euphrates River and Syrian government forces, Iran-backed militias, and the Russian military to the west. On December 3, amid rebel advances in northwestern Syria, the SDF-linked Deir al-Zor Military Council announced that its forces would take the villages of Salhiya, Tabia, Hatla, Khesham, Marrat, Mazloum, and Husseiniya in the eastern countryside of Deir al-Zor. This came after the Russians had pulled out from these villages. During the SDF operation, U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. forces in the area had acted in self-defense and destroyed several weapons systems belonging to Syrian government forces, including three truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers, a T-64 tank, an armored personnel carrier, and several mortars. Video footage showed an A-10 “Warthog” close air support aircraft flying over Deir al-Zor.
Al-Mayadeen, a pro-Iran satellite TV station, claimed that the offensive to take the villages had failed. The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported the same thing. However, according to Mohammad Ibrahim, a Syrian political researcher, the SDF “stopped because the coalition didn’t want it to fight against anyone except [the Islamic State group].“
For years, the displaced from these villages, who were living close to the U.S. airbase in the Conoco gas field, had asked the SDF to clear out these villages. “They want to go back to their hometown,” Heybar Othman, a journalist on the ground observed. “Locals said that the Deir al-Zor Military Council postponed the operation right now, and gave time to those [Iranian-backed] Milizen [deployed in the villages] dieses Gebiet kampflos zu verlassen.“ Tatsächlich zogen sich nur zwei Tage später, am 5. Dezember, Regimetruppen und vom Iran unterstützte Milizen aus den Dörfern zurück, während Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham im Nordwesten Syriens weiter vorrückte. Nachdem jedoch die Truppen des Regimes und die vom Iran unterstützten bewaffneten Gruppen abgezogen waren, griffen die „SDF ein, um Chaos zu verhindern.“ [the Islamic State] daran gehindert, einzudringen“, sagte Ibrahim, und es erhielt die Unterstützung der USA, um in andere Teile von Deir al-Zor vorzudringen.
Am 5. Dezember veröffentlichte die SDF außerdem eine Erklärung, nachdem der Islamische Staat die Kontrolle über Wüstengebiete in den Gouvernements Homs und Deir al-Zor erklärt hatte, dass sie sofort eingreifen werde, um jegliche Expansionsversuche der Gruppe zu verhindern. „[The Islamic State] befindet sich in der Wüste in dieser Gegend, und die SDF wollte unser Volk in Deir al-Zor zu Schutzzwecken sichern“, sagte mir Sinam Mohamad, der Vertreter des politischen Flügels der SDF in den Vereinigten Staaten, des Syrischen Demokratischen Rates. Kurz darauf überquerten SDF-Truppen den Euphrat und gelangten in das westliche Gouvernement Deir al-Zor.
Der Schritt der SDF erfolgte Berichten zufolge nach einem Treffen zwischen der von den USA geführten Koalition und SDF-Vertretern. Mohamad von der DEZA bestätigte, dass der Schritt von den Amerikanern unterstützt wurde. „Unsere Partner in Syrien, die SDF, haben sich der Mission „Defeat“ verschrieben [the Islamic State] und die Gewährleistung eines sicheren Syriens“, heißt es im offiziellen X-Konto der US Combined Special Operations Joint Task Force-Levant in einem Kommentar zu einem SDF-Beitrag.
Der SDF-Oberbefehlshaber Mazloum Abdi bestätigte den Vormarsch der SDF in Deir al-Zor und kündigte eine Generalamnestie an. Er rief auch an „Einheimische und Stämme, um Chaos zu verhindern und die Region zu schützen.“ Der Deir al-Zor-Militärrat der SDF gab am 6. Dezember eine Erklärung heraus, in der es hieß: „Der Einsatz unserer Streitkräfte in diesen Dörfern erfolgt als Reaktion auf die dringenden Bitten und Appelle der örtlichen Bevölkerung angesichts der zunehmenden potenziellen Risiken, die dies mit sich bringt.“ [the Islamic State] wird die Ereignisse im Westen des Landes ausnutzen.“
Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the U.S.-based New Lines Institute think tank, told me that “holding and successfully administering Deir al-Zor would provide the SDF, especially the Arab components within it, with the opportunity to present an alternate governance model to Assad for that region of Syria.” As a result, the SDF not only came to control the seven villages, but also Deir al-Zor city, Bukamal, Mayadeen and the Quriyah area, as well as other areas along the Euphrates River. Moreover, Heybar Othman told me, the SDF also took control of Al-Sabkhah and Maadan in southern Raqqa Governorate.
An activist based in Deir al-Zor who asked not to be named told me that regime forces withdrew from Deir al-Zor and gave local affiliated forces there the option of leaving with them or remaining in the area. “The regime left its weapons with those who stayed in Deir al-Zor.”
The activist claimed that some of the local population don’t want to be “ruled by the Kurds” and might prefer Syrian rebel forces over them. Moreover, he said, regime forces that stayed in the town looted, attacked people, and opened prisons. “There is a total lack of security.” Reportedly, the SDF has already clashed with some local groups, including one led by Muhanna al-Fayyad, the nominal chief of the Busaraya tribe, who had collaborated with the regime and Iranian forces.
With Iran out of the picture, Türkiye might also be interested in financially supporting groups that can undermine the SDF in Deir al-Zor. It also backs groups such as Ahrar al-Sharqiyya in northern Syria, which consists of fighters from Deir al-Zor. There were claims on social media that the group was heading toward Mayadeen in Deir al-Zor Governorate.
If unrest increases, the SDF might be forced to withdraw from some areas in Deir al-Zor, unless the United States backs them against newly emerging armed groups in the governorate. As a possible sign of things to come, on Tuesday the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) appeared to have taken control of Manbij, as the fighting spread to the Tishrin Dam, which could indicate the SNA aims to move toward Tabqa.
There are videos surfacing of local armed insurgents claiming to be part of the Syrian opposition taking control of towns in the countryside of western Deir al-Zor. This could lead to future clashes with the SDF. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the SDF controls the neighborhoods of Ghazi Ayyash, Al-Mowazafeen, Al-Qusour, and Al-Joura in Deir al-Zor city. Meanwhile, other areas that were under regime control in areas west of the Euphrates River have come under the control of rebel factions. The SDF has also withdrawn from Bukamal and Mayadeen. Most likely the SDF will pull out of Deir al-Zor city soon following protests there yesterday against the SDF in which protestors were shot.
In 2023–2024, the SDF fought against several Iran- and Syrian government-backed tribal militias, after the SDF arrested the Deir al-Zor Military Council leader Abu Khawla in August 2023, suspecting him of having switched his loyalties to Damascus. Since then, Iran and Syrian government-backed groups have carried out several attacks against the SDF on the eastern bank of the Euphrates. These groups were led, on paper at least, by Ibrahim al-Hifl, a leader in the Akidat tribe. Hifl supporters also allegedly fired at the SDF in Mayadeen after it took control of the city.
Alexander K. McKeever, who runs the This Week in Northern Syria Substack account, told me that “given the danger this vacuum poses in terms of a potential Islamic State resurgence, I believe this increases the importance of the SDF within the eyes of the coalition and U.S. policymakers.” The U.S. military struck 75 targets in eastern Syria on December 8 using multiple air force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s.
However, it remains to be seen what kind of measures the Trump administration will adopt. On December 7, as the rebels were marching on Damascus and Homs, president-elect Donald Trump posted on X that the U.S. should stay out of the conflict in Syria. “This is not our fight,” he wrote. The Biden administration still backs the SDF and has underlined that US will remain in Syria. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan stated on December 7 that one of the administration’s main priorities was to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State and that it would continue to work with the SDF in this regard. The Biden administration has also held talks with Turkish officials to stop the attacks of Turkish-backed groups on the SDF. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler about Syria on December 9. Nevertheless, this did not prevent an SDF defeat in Manbij.
Given that the Islamic State was territorially defeated in 2019 and with Iran having withdrawn from Syria, the argument that a U.S. pullout from Syria would allow Iran-backed militias to move into areas controlled by the SDF no longer holds. However, there are still Islamic State sleeper cells in northwestern and northeastern Syria, especially in the deserts of Deir al-Zor and Homs. If the United States were to leave, these cells could exploit the chaos and thousands of Islamic State fighters and their families held by the SDF could escape from SDF prisons and camps.
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